Let’s be real — mortgage rates have been the monster under the bed for a while. Every time they tick up, people flinch and say, “Maybe I’ll wait.”
But here’s the twist — waiting for that perfect 5-something rate could end up haunting your wallet later.
The “Magic” Number
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters. If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10%—or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months.”
So when the market hits that mortgage rate sweet spot — which experts say is likely in 2026 — things will shift fast. Buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines will jump back in, and when that happens, prices will start to rise.
And here’s where it gets interesting. A 5.99% rate might sound like a big win, but it might not actually save you as much as you think.
See chart below 👇
On a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between today’s rate (around 6.2%) and 5.99% is roughly $50 a month. That’s less than most people spend on weekly coffee runs or the occasional DoorDash splurge. And once prices go up with more buyers entering the market, any savings could disappear quickly.
So, if you’re waiting for 5.99% to make your move, you might miss out on today’s advantages — like more homes to choose from, stronger negotiating power, and less competition.
Once rates dip under 6%, that dynamic flips. More buyers. More bidding. Higher prices.
Why Acting Now Makes Sense
Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, says:
“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”
And Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, adds:
“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation—if the house is right for them, and the upfront and monthly payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”
The Bottom Line
If today’s rates make you nervous, remember — waiting doesn’t always pay off.
Once mortgage rates dip below 6%, more buyers will flood back in, pushing prices higher.
So, don’t be afraid of today’s rates. Because if you’re ready, this might just be your chance to make your move before the market wakes up again.
