A lot of buyers are sitting in “wait and see” mode right now, watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. And honestly, who wouldn’t want a better rate? Totally fair.
But here’s the curveball: that dreamy 5.99% number? It might not actually change your monthly payment the way you think it will.
Affordability is still a challenge—no denying that. But the market has quietly given savvy buyers a head start. Rates have already come down from their spring peak, when they nudged above 7%, and that drop alone is saving you more than you may realize. Mortgage rates sitting in the low 6s might not sound dramatic, but the difference shows up in your actual monthly payment.
According to new data from Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down nearly $400 since May. That’s real money. That’s the kind of shift that opens the door for buyers who put their plans on hold earlier this year because the numbers just didn’t pencil out.
And while it may be tempting to sit tight and wait for even bigger savings, that strategy could backfire. Here’s why.
Most experts believe rates are likely to stay right about where we are throughout 2026. There’s no industry consensus that we’re headed into the mid-5s anytime soon. In fact, only one major forecaster predicts rates could fall into the upper 5s in 2026 (see graph below). So even if rates dip slightly, the impact might be smaller than you expect.
If rates come down to 5.99%, the savings on the average home is only about $80 a month—or close enough, depending on the rate your lender quotes and your purchase price (see chart below). And while $80 is nice, it’s about one dinner out or one grocery run gone rogue. It’s not the kind of game changer most buyers imagine. But that nearly $400/month savings we’re already seeing compared to spring? That matters.
So the real question becomes: is waiting for an extra $80 really worth it?
Because while you hold out for a tiny future dip, the bigger opportunity might be slipping by right now. Today’s buyers have more homes to choose from, sellers who are actually willing to negotiate, and far fewer buyers crowding the scene. Once rates break below 6%, even for a moment, buyer psychology shifts instantly.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), if rates hit 6%, an estimated 5.5 million more households will be able to afford the median-priced home. Even if a small percentage of them decide to jump back in, that’s a surge of competition—and competition always pushes prices higher. Higher prices can easily wipe out the $80 savings you waited months for.
You don’t have to chase the perfect rate. You already have the chance to move—and save—right now. So the question really is: would you let $80 hold you back from buying a home?
